미국 시장
MSFT 전략 상세
최근 1년 일봉 기반의 일자별 신호와 종합의견
총점: 56.35
기준일: 2026-11-05
1년 가격 추이 + 매매 시그널
매매 신호 백테스트
초기 투자금 10,000,000원 기준12개월
+4.84%
+₩484,425
최종 평가액: ₩10,484,425
매수 4회 · 매도 3회
138거래일● 보유 중
시작: 2026-04-22
6개월
+9.17%
+₩917,439
최종 평가액: ₩10,917,439
매수 3회 · 매도 2회
112거래일● 보유 중
시작: 2026-05-29
3개월
-0.71%
-₩71,316
최종 평가액: ₩9,928,684
매수 2회 · 매도 1회
63거래일● 보유 중
시작: 2026-08-10
1개월
-6.10%
-₩609,601
최종 평가액: ₩9,390,399
매수 2회 · 매도 1회
20거래일● 보유 중
시작: 2026-10-09
1주일
-3.58%
-₩357,501
최종 평가액: ₩9,642,499
매수 1회 · 매도 0회
2거래일● 보유 중
시작: 2026-11-04
전략별 점수 (기준일 2026-11-05)
| 카테고리 | 거장 | 점수 | 신호 | 근거 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic&Trend | Jesse Livermore | 68.07 | bullish | 추세 우위 유지 |
| Classic&Trend | Nicolas Darvas | 51.84 | neutral | 박스 내 움직임 |
| Classic&Trend | Paul Tudor Jones | 100.00 | bullish | 200DMA 생존 |
| Classic&Trend | Richard Dennis | 50.00 | neutral | 채널 내부 |
| DayTrading&Technical | Linda Raschke | 58.00 | neutral | 리듬 약함 |
| DayTrading&Technical | Oliver Velez | 70.00 | bullish | 20EMA 위 추세 |
| DayTrading&Technical | Ross Cameron | 37.90 | bearish | 중립 |
| DayTrading&Technical | Steven Dux | 55.00 | neutral | 통계 패턴 미약 |
| Pattern&Momentum | Dan Zanger | 50.00 | neutral | 관망 구간 |
| Pattern&Momentum | Kristjan Kullamagi | 45.00 | bearish | 이벤트 신호 약함 |
| Pattern&Momentum | Mark Minervini | 44.11 | bearish | 수축 미완료 |
관련 뉴스/정보
- OpenAI Says It Will Pay for Its Data Centers’ Power After the Election Backlash
OpenAI's new promise sounds like a clean fix for angry voters, but its fine print leaves out the leased campuses and partner sites where the real exposure sits. One of its biggest partners may have the most to lose.
- Healthcare and Staples Hold the Line Against Tech. The Time to Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy Has Arrived.
Jim Cramer calls Big Tech a millstone around investors' necks, and the last time leadership cracked like this, the damage was brutal. Which corners of the market survived the dot-com unwind, and does your retirement account hold the wrong ones?
- Nvidia Partner CoreWeave Ready To Report Q3 As AI Stocks Crumble; Nebius, Qualys Also Due
Despite strong top-line growth, CoreWeave stock and Nebius have been hit hard by sellers ahead of their Q3 earnings reports.
- Why The Blue Tsunami Rattled AI Stocks As Microsoft, Google, Amazon Fall
The Blue Tsunami midterms sent some AI stocks like Nvidia reeling while cloud giants rallied.
- Top Funds Feast On Shell, Microsoft, Palantir And 24 More Stocks
The best mutual funds place massive bets on Microsoft, Palantir and Apple. But that's just the start. See the full list here.
- Cloud AI Update - AI Accelerator Market Poised for Significant Growth by 2030
The global AI accelerator market is experiencing significant growth, projected to expand from $151 billion in 2025 to $443 billion by 2030, according to a recent report. This surge is fueled by the increased adoption of generative AI, deployment of large language models, and substantial investments in data-center and edge infrastructure. North America leads the market, driven by hyperscaler data-center spending, while Asia Pacific is the fastest-growing region due to China's AI-chip design...
- Elon Musk warns AI could surpass all human intelligence by 2032. Can investors ride the wave or get crushed?
“So there really won’t be anything that AI can’t do better than humans.”
- How Has Meta's Story Changed?
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
- What Are Microsoft Investors Betting On?
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
- Microsoft Stock: The Selloff Proved Why It's Different (NASDAQ:MSFT)
- Alphabet is The Best Positioned Hyperscaler for This Blue Wave AI-Energy Regulation Shift
Democrats now control Congress, voters are rejecting data centers, and AI stocks are sliding as power bills become a political weapon. One hyperscaler has the balance sheet, the chips, and the valuation to absorb the blow, and it is not the one most investors expect.
- Stocks lost $2 trillion. The market is wrong about AI
The stock market lost $2 trillion in 40 minutes, and AI stocks took the worst of it, with Intel down more than half since October and AMD off 17% in a day. Host Ejaaz Ahamadeen breaks down why it happened and why he thinks the market is wrong, from GPU rental prices up 106% to the CPU boom and Anthropic's IPO valuation.
- Latest News In AI Chips - Race to Dominate AI Infrastructure Accelerates Globally
The global race for AI infrastructure supremacy is intensifying as major technology players significantly increase their investments in next-generation data center accelerators. According to BCC Research, the surging demand for AI, machine learning, and data-intensive workloads is driving a shift from traditional CPU-based architectures to advanced accelerators like GPUs, TPUs, FPGAs, and ASICs. Major companies, including Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, have committed substantial capital...
- Why Amazon and Other AI Data-Center Stocks Will Be Post-Midterm Winners
A forced slowdown on AI spending could prove beneficial for the hyperscalers and enable them to shore up their balance sheets.
- IREN Shares Surge 18% After Strong AI Cloud Revenue Growth and Better-Than-Expected Quarterly Results
IREN Ltd (NASDAQ:IREN) shares jumped 18. 1% in premarket trading on Friday after the artificial intelligence infrastructure company reported fiscal first-quarter 2027 results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, helping the stock recover from a sharp decline in the previous session.
- The AI Trade Selloff Is Crushing Industrial Stocks. What Caterpillar’s Valuation Tells Us.
The market clearly believes that a Democratic Congress means less AI spending. We ask two very hard questions. Will you like our answers?
- iShares Expanded Tech-Software (IGV) Adds Oracle, Trims Microsoft on Nov. 4
The $12.41 billion fund bought $105.8 million of Oracle while selling $10.0 million of Microsoft and $9.2 million of Palo Alto Networks.
- SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth (SPYG) Buys $29.8 Million More NVDA on Nov. 4
The fund added $239.6 million in new buying across 151 positions, led by a $29.8 million increase in NVIDIA.
- Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) Adds Oracle, Trims Apple on Nov. 4
The fund bought $212.8 million of Oracle stock while selling $8.1 million of Apple and $7.7 million of Nvidia.
- What iShares MSCI World ETF (URTH) Bought: Apple Leads on Wednesday
The $9.46 billion fund added $306.7 million in gross purchases on Wednesday, Nov. 4, boosting 533 positions and trimming none.
- ETFs Are Net Sellers of Microsoft (MSFT) on Nov. 4
- What Are Microsoft Investors Betting On?
- Dan Ives Forecasts 25% Drop In Capital Raises for MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN as 2027 CapEx Peak Sets Up ‘Mas
- Most Active Stocks: Amazon Tops List with 25% Upside, Strong Buy Rating
- MSFT 8-K & SEC Filings
- IREN stock plunges 18% as Microsoft raises concerns over data center delays
- Microsoft Corp Stock (MSFT) Moved Down by 3.11% on Nov 5: What Signal Does It Send?
- Microsoft Stock (NASDAQ:MSFT) Slips Despite Potential Huge Election Win
- Microsoft Stock Has Gained More Than 50% in About 4 Months. Here's What It Has Usually Done Next.
- After a $2.39M sale, Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) officer proposes selling more shares.
AI 해설
전략 점수와 뉴스를 바탕으로 자동 생성된 해설입니다.
## Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) 종목 해설 — 2026-07-16 ### 종합 해설 Microsoft Corporation은 2026-07-16 기준 **유지** 의견으로, 종합 점수 58.57점을 기록하고 있습니다. 클래식(59.35), 패턴(55.02), 일간(61.25) 점수가 모두 55~62점 범위에 분포하며 비교적 균형 잡힌 중립적 흐름을 보입니다. 90일간 주가는 $409.41에서 $401.10으로 약 2% 소폭 하락하며 박스권 횡보 중입니다. 신뢰도(17.13)는 중하 수준으로, 방향성 결정까지 추가 시간이 필요한 상황입니다. ### 핵심 상승 요인 3개 1. **다바스 박스 상단 돌파**: Nicolas Darvas 전략(92.6점)이 박스 상단 돌파를 확인하며 가장 강력한 매수 신호를 발하고 있습니다. 2. **20EMA 위 추세 및 리듬 유지**: Oliver Velez(70점)와 Linda Raschke(78점) 전략이 20EMA 위 추세 유지와 단기 리듬 형성을 확인, 단기 강세 모멘텀을 지지합니다. 3. **AI 클라우드 장기 투자 지속**: Wedgewood Partners의 투자자 서한이 Microsoft의 AI 관련 자본 지출을 긍정적으로 평가하며 Azure AI 부문의 장기 성장성을 재확인하고 있습니다. ### 핵심 하락 요인 3개 1. **200DMA 하회 리스크**: Paul Tudor Jones 전략(45점)이 200일 이동평균선 하회 리스크를 경고하며, 중장기 추세 지지선에 대한 불안 신호가 감지됩니다. 2. **Jesse Livermore 추세 중립/약세**: Livermore 전략(49.8점)이 추세 중립/약세를 판단하며, 모멘텀 기반 매수 근거가 취약합니다. 3. **Steven Dux 약세**: 단기 통계 패턴(45점) 미약 신호가 지속되며, 단기 가격 흐름의 상승 동력이 충분하지 않음을 나타냅니다. ### 리스크 경고 - 클라우드 인프라 자본 지출 급증이 단기 수익성에 부담을 줄 수 있으며, 투자자들의 비용 효율성 우려가 커지고 있습니다. - Meta의 클라우드 시장 진입(AWS 임원 영입 보도)은 Azure의 시장 경쟁 강도를 높이는 잠재적 위협 요인입니다. - Oracle의 급락 등 클라우드 섹터 전반의 변동성 확대가 동반 리스크로 작용할 수 있습니다. ### 참고용 체크포인트 - $400 지지선 유지 여부가 단기 핵심 기술적 분기점 - 200DMA 이탈 여부를 중기 하락 전환 신호로 설정 - 다음 분기 Azure 클라우드 성장률 발표가 주가 방향성의 핵심 촉매 - Darvas 박스 상단 돌파의 지속성 확인을 위해 2~4주 추가 관찰 권장